A Sober View Of The Russo-Ukrainian War
Here I sit, a middle-aged academic who lived and studies war, suffering daily from wounds received in a battle that has long since been forgotten, struggling to make sense of the West’s strategy in Ukraine. What are we doing? Are we waging a pr...
Do our leaders really have no understanding of the Ukrainian and Russian people and their long, distinguished history of strategic “stubbornness”? What about the Russian Federation’s brutal effectiveness in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria? Are our leaders, particularly our military commanders, lacking ... the ability to disassociate from oneself and assume the “mind of the other”? The evidence suggests that they are.
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We are continually led to believe that it is only a matter of months until the whole Russian Army collapses.
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The American people have heard these fantastical declarations before. Just a few short years ago, American generals annually testified before Congress that it was only a matter of time before Iraq and Afghanistan would be “pacified,” the insurgencies defeated. One more surge, just a few more resources, only a couple more thousand troops, and then, yes, the entire insurgency would effectively cease to exist!
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First, we must acknowledge that Russia will continue to wage this war for years. To the Russians, they have already been fighting for close to ten years, since 2014. The invasion last February was merely a new phase in an ongoing war.
Unlike the American military, Russian military doctrine and strategic thinking recognize, account for, and embrace the possibility of decades-long military engagements... .
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Second, Russia’s strategic objectives are fluid and will change according to the conditions on the ground.
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Third, there is a constant, unrelenting echo that Russia’s military is incompetent. ... They are learning, adapting, and prosecuting their war, according to their timeline, not ours.
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The constant relief of Russian generals for failing is an organizational strength, not a weakness. The battlefield deaths of senior officers indicate a willingness to share in the danger of combat with their soldiers, something the troops admire. In the end, however, the Russian military’s strategic acumen and stubborn resolve are the most deadly.
The West’s unwillingness to acknowledge these “Russian” realities will only lead to failures like Iraq and Afghanistan.