Just as I said. It's not really about the Christians, and he's only going to make matters worse.
How do Nigerians account for Trump’s pivot to such an aggressive policy?
The motivations are not fully clear, but several overlapping theories have emerged in Nigerian analytic and government circles.
First, over the years, some Nigerians, at home and in the diaspora, have fed the U.S. Republican Party’s powerful evangelical base reports of alleged widespread persecution of Christians in Nigeria.
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Some non-governmental groups based in the South East, notably the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), have also been vocal drivers of this narrative.
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Many Nigerian security analysts, and even some Christian leaders, question the methodology behind this data. On 6 November, a report by the British Broadcasting Corporation’s Global Disinformation Unit said that “for data that could be shaping US policy towards Nigeria, InterSociety’s work is opaque” and that “data sources quoted by InterSociety in its reports do not reflect the figures published”.
Meanwhile, religious freedom advocates in the U.S. raised the profile of ...[the questionable and opaque data]. For example:
In February 2024, Open Doors, an organisation that tracks Christian persecution, claimed that “every two hours, a Nigerian Christian is killed for their faith”, that 82 per cent of Christians killed around the world from October 2022 to September 2023 died in Nigeria and that Nigeria had become “the deadliest place in the world for followers of Jesus”.
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In early September, Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas, introduced a bill to impose sanctions on Nigerian officials “who facilitate violence against Christians”.
On 27 September, television talk show host Bill Maher, apparently trying to dim the global spotlight on Israel’s deadly military campaign in Gaza, credulously reeled off breathtakingly steep numbers of Christians allegedly killed in Nigeria. It was amid this pressure that Trump put Nigeria back on the Countries of Particular Concern list.
A second (perhaps less well grounded) theory is that the U.S. is seeking to deepen religious fault lines in Nigeria, as a means of crippling Abuja’s influence in regional and global affairs – eg, by blocking its aspiration to represent Africa as a veto-wielding member on a reformed UN Security Council.
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In September, addressing the UN General Assembly in New York, Nigeria’s Vice President Kashim Shettima was highly critical of Israel’s campaign in Gaza and the toll it took on Palestinians. According to this theory, the narrative of widespread persecution and mass slaughter of Christians in Nigeria was amplified by some U.S. media, to counter Nigeria’s condemnation of the killings in Gaza.
Also in September, shrugging off worries about the potential impact of Trump’s trade policy, particularly tariffs on Nigerian exports, President Tinubu said: “If [our] non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side”. Some analysts saw this remark as an undiplomatic poke at Trump that risked blowback.
What could the termination of U.S. aid and a military operation mean for Nigerians?
Further cuts to aid, which is already diminished by Trump’s shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development earlier in the year, risks scaling down or shutting some health and education programs, as well as weakening humanitarian relief efforts, in parts of Nigeria, including where conflict-displaced populations are in dire need. It will not protect Nigerian Christians; instead, it will increase suffering among many people that Trump purports to be defending.